1Y+ HODL Wave builds on work initially conducted by Unchained Capital.
HODL Wave data groups bitcoin by age since it was last moved from one wallet to another.
In this example we are looking at the percentage of all bitcoins that have not been moved from one wallet to another for at least 1 year.
This is a good example of blockchain analysis as we are looking at blockchain data to identify when bitcoins were last sent.
Looking at this specific 'age' is useful as certain movements in the percentage of 1yr HODL coins coincides with market cycle highs and lows of Bitcoin's price. The reasons for this are driven by market psychology i.e. the emotions of people holding the coins and deciding whether to sell or hold them, depending on where we are in the market cycle.
For example, we can see the proportion of 1yr+ coins decreases as price climbs up towards a new cycle high. This is, in part, due to people who have been holding onto coins for over 1 year deciding to cash in some profit, so they sell the coins and those coins are no longer classified in this analysis as 1yr+. Therefore the 1yr+ HODL (orange line) drops as price (blue line) increases.
This tool analyzes a group of market participants over time to understand their behavior and identify their potential impact on Bitcoin price. In previous years we have seen that when long-term holders of Bitcoin move their coins en-masse (largely to realize their profits by selling them), it can forecast Bitcoin price reaching its major highs.
The original HODL waves concept was developed by Unchained Capital.
This specific view was created by Philip Swift .
April 2019
