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1Y+HODL wave chart analysis: Understanding the dynamic changes of long-term holding addresses is necessary to grasp the main trends of BTC

I. What is the "1Y+ HODL Wave"?

The "1Y+ HODL Wave" is an on-chain Bitcoin analytics tool that tracks the percentage of Bitcoin supply held in addresses that have remained inactive for at least one year, reflecting behavioral trends among long-term holders (LTHs). Its core principle is that the longer the time since a Bitcoin UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) was last moved, the older its "coin age." The chart uses colored bands to display the distribution of Bitcoin across different coin-age groups, forming a wave-like visualization that highlights shifts in holding cycles among market participants.

II. Key Functions of the 1Y+ HODL Wave

Identifying Market Cycle Phases:

Selling activity by long-term holders often correlates with bull market peaks. A significant decline in the 1Y+ HODL percentage signals that LTHs are transferring coins to new entrants (short-term speculators), a hallmark of late-stage bull markets. For example, during the 2021 bull market peak, the 1Y+ HODL ratio dropped from 53.7% to a low, aligning with the price top.

Tracking "Smart Money" Behavior:

LTHs are often regarded as "smart money," with their holding patterns reflecting long-term market expectations. A rising 1Y+ HODL ratio indicates accumulation by conviction-driven investors, while a declining ratio suggests increasing profit-taking pressure.

Timing Market Exits and Entries:

Exit Signal: Historically, Bitcoin prices tend to peak 6-8 months after the 1Y+ HODL ratio begins declining from its high (e.g., 2017 and 2021 cycles).

Buying Opportunity: During post-halving "accumulation phases" (e.g., the March 2020 crash), a stable 1Y+ HODL ratio amid price drops suggests LTHs are not panic-selling, signaling a potential buying window.

Revealing Supply-Demand Dynamics:

Bitcoin’s halving events and the steady rise in LTH holdings (with each cycle’s low increasing by ~8%) highlight growing scarcity, a fundamental driver of long-term price appreciation.

III. How to Trade BTC Using the 1Y+ HODL Wave (With Indicator Features)

Bull Market Exit Strategy:

Monitor Slope Changes: A sustained decline in the 1Y+ HODL ratio (e.g., a >2% drop over 3 months) alongside price highs may signal an impending top.

Price-Indicator Divergence: Rapid price surges coupled with accelerating declines in the 1Y+ HODL ratio (e.g., April 2021’s 65% ratio vs. $60k BTC) often precede corrections.

Halving Cycle Tactics:

Pre-Halving Accumulation: During the year before a halving (e.g., April 2023–April 2024), the 1Y+ HODL ratio typically rises, favoring dollar-cost averaging.

Post-Halving Dips: If black swan events (e.g., 2020’s "312 crash") occur post-halving but the 1Y+ HODL ratio remains stable (<1% drop), it suggests LTH confidence, offering a buying opportunity.

Cross-Indicator Validation:

RHODL Ratio: High ratios (LTH holdings vs. short-term holdings) indicate market overheating.

Exchange Net Flows: A falling 1Y+ HODL ratio paired with surging exchange inflows confirms sell-side pressure.

IV. Case Study (Assume Current 1Y+ HODL Ratio is 68%)

If the scenario is mid-2025 bull market, with the 1Y+ HODL ratio dropping from 75% to 68% amid rising prices:

Gradually Reduce Exposure: A 7% decline matches historical exit thresholds.

Track Slope Momentum: A monthly drop >1.5% warrants accelerated profit-taking.

Confirm with On-Chain Data: Large BTC inflows to exchanges (e.g., >30k BTC/day) strengthen top signals.

V. Key Considerations

Lagging Nature: The 1Y+ HODL Wave reflects historical data; combine with real-time sentiment analysis.

Macro Factors: ETF inflows, regulations, or macroeconomic shifts may disrupt historical patterns.

Risk Management: Even with top signals, prices may rally further—use phased profit-taking instead of full exits.

The 1Y+ HODL Wave helps investors objectively identify market cycles and avoid emotional trading. However, no single indicator guarantees accuracy—combine multiple metrics to improve success rates.