What is the Bitcoin 4-Year Moving Average?

The Bitcoin 4-year moving average is a trendline calculated by averaging Bitcoin's daily closing prices over the past 4 years (approximately 1,460 days). This indicator is widely used to analyze Bitcoin's long-term trends, as its timeframe aligns closely with Bitcoin's halving cycle (occurring roughly every 4 years).

How It's Calculated

Data Range ：Uses Bitcoin's daily closing prices from the past 4 years.

Calculation Method ：Adds up all closing prices over this period and divides by the total number of days (around 1,460) to find the average.

Dynamic Update ：Each day, the latest closing price is added, and the price from 4 years prior is removed, creating a smooth moving average line.

Why It Matters

Halving Cycle Connection ：Bitcoin undergoes a block reward halving every 4 years (e.g., 2012, 2016, 2020), impacting supply and demand dynamics. The 4-year moving average is a key tool for observing these cycle effects.

Long-Term Trend Indicator ：When Bitcoin's price is above the 4-year average, it typically signals an uptrend or bull market; below it, a bear market or correction may be underway.

Support and Resistance ：Historical data shows this line often acts as a strong support or resistance level, especially during extreme market volatility.

How to Use It

Buy Signal ： If the price drops to the 4-year moving average and finds support, it could be a buying opportunity for long-term investors, particularly near the end of a bear market.

Sell Signal ：If the price rises far above the average and shows signs of reversal, it may indicate an overheated market, suggesting a time to take profits.

Combine with Other Indicators ： Pair it with metrics like the MVRV Ratio or long-term holder supply for greater accuracy.

Real-World Examples

During the 2020-2021 bull market, Bitcoin's price soared well above the 4-year average, indicating overbought conditions. In the 2018-2019 bear market bottom, the price dipped to this line and rebounded, confirming its role as support.

The Bitcoin 4-year moving average helps investors identify long-term trends and cyclical opportunities, making it a valuable tool for long-term strategies.