There are too many news articles on the internet about Bitcoin price predictions, which just give someone’s vague opinion of what the Bitcoin asset class will be worth in the future. The problem with these is that the person probably just said a number to get their name in a news article! You also don’t know what Bitcoin analysis they did, or even exactly when they made the Bitcoin price forecast.
With news every day of institutional investors buying bitcoin or people buying it for its safe-haven properties, the price predictions of digital asset “industry experts” quickly lose relevance in the crypto market. We want to provide you with better data and share exactly how it is calculated. So that you can make better decisions when looking for Bitcoin price forecasts and Bitcoin price predictions. We want this price target data to be freely available and easy to understand for any crypto investor.
On the chart above, we show you various long-term bitcoin price prediction models, which forecast the expected price of bitcoin in the future. Some try to identify the lowest price Bitcoin will be in the future, others try to calculate the all-time-high price Bitcoin will reach.
In this section below the chart, we explain what each of the bitcoin price forecast tools is, how it is calculated, and who originally created it.
We hope you find this data useful as it provides a unique and more robust way to see Bitcoin price predictions. This data updates daily so you can check back in to see how these Bitcoin price forecast models change over time.
The labels on the above chart can be clicked on and off using the key.
Many of the tools use fundamental data taken from the blockchain. The benefit of this is that it uses the actual behavior of market participants. This is better than people attempting to make forecasts simply off news events such as central banks like the federal reserve changing interest rates at certain moments in time. Therefore, we believe that they can be a more effective type of Bitcoin price prediction.
This indicator uses a combination of on-chain and technical inputs.
First, we need to calculate Delta Cap:
Delta Cap = Realized Cap - Average Cap
Average Cap is explained in the Top Cap section below.
Once Delta Cap is calculated, its values over time are then multiplied by 7. The result is Delta Top.
This indicator uses market cap and price information as inputs. It is therefore not an on-chain indicator, unlike many of the other indicators on this page.
To calculate Top Cap, it is first necessary to calculate Average Cap, which is the cumulative sum of Market Cap divided by the age of the market in days. This creates a constant time-based moving average of market cap.
Once Average cap is calculated, those values are multiplied by 35. The result is Top Cap.
For much of Bitcoin’s history, Top Cap has correctly predicted the Bitcoin price high’s of the major cycles where price has gone parabolic due to market euphoria and FOMO (fear of missing out).
This is an on-chain indicator. That means it uses data from the Bitcoin blockchain to identify actual user behavior and activity.
Before Terminal price is calculated, it is first necessary to calculate Transferred Price. Transferred price takes the sum of >Coin Days Destroyed and divides it by the existing supply of bitcoin and the time it has been in circulation. The value of Transferred Price is then multiplied by 21. Remember that there can only ever be 21 million bitcoin mined.
This creates a 'terminal' value as the supply is all mined, a kind of reverse supply adjustment. Instead of heavily weighting later behavior, it normalizes historical behavior to today. By normalizing by 21, a terminal value is created.
This Terminal Price has historically been very effective at forecasting the tops of Bitcoin price cycles. Terminal Price was created by hre@_checkmatey_.
This is an on-chain indicator used for Bitcoin price prediction at the bear market lows. This means that it is trying to identify the lowest price that Bitcoin may drop to in the future.
It uses inputs that we have already explained in the sections above.
It is calculated by subtracting Transferred Price from Realized Price.
Balanced price was created by David Puell.
CVDD stands for Cumulative Value Coin Days Destroyed.
Coin Days Destroyed is a term used for bitcoin to identify a value of sorts to UTXO’s (unspent transaction outputs). You can learn more about UTXO’s here. They can be thought of as coins moving between wallets.
When coins are sent between wallets, the transaction has:
That value is Coin Days Destroyed (CDD).
CVDD tracks the cumulative sum of this value-time destruction as coins move from old hands into new hands as a ratio of the market age. It is then multiplied by 6 million, which is a somewhat arbitrary number as it is not linked to any relevant Bitcoin data.
The result is that it has historically correctly forecasted the major lows of Bitcoins price with good accuracy.